Dear Colleague,

This is the sixth MICROCON Newsletter. It contains news on our new publications; news from our fieldwork teams; and news of upcoming fieldwork studies.

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By Ingunn Bjørkhaug and Morten Bøås , Fafo Institute for Applied International Studies

In May 2009 fieldwork was conducted in Voinjama, Lofa County in North-eastern Liberia among ex-combatants (male and female) 18 years and above. In the aftermath of the Liberian civil war – a war that lasted almost fourteen years and left the country in a state of social and economic destruction – almost 100,000 former combatants were demobilised through the Liberian Disarmament, Demobilisation, Reintegration and Rehabilitation Programme (DDRR). The programme is hailed as a huge success both by the United Nations' Mission to Liberia (UNMIL) and other international stakeholders. However, whereas the disarmament and demobilisation phase was implemented quite effectively, several questions can be asked about the components of reintegration and rehabilitation. Most ex-combatants are unemployed or underemployed and the programmes initiated to facilitate their reintegration into society worked from the assumption that wartime experiences and networks had to be broken as they were seen as counterproductive to peace and reconciliation.

This is, however, not necessarily the case. Drawing on previous work conducted in Liberia by Fafo and the work of Mats Utas (Nordic Africa Institute) and Maya Christensen (University of Copenhagen) in Sierra Leone, the current research aims to question mainstream approaches to reintegration asking whether it is better achieved through peaceful remobilisation allowing ex-combatants to also make use of skills, experiences and networks gained during the war. This can, however, only be understood through the gathering of systematic data about the background of the ex-combatants, and the nature and form of their participation in violent conflict. Many people were involved in the war, but most only fought for certain periods and whereas the motivations for joining armed groups were many, previous research on ex-combatants in Liberia carried out by the authors reveal that security considerations were among the most important factors. Most combatants were ordinary Liberian men (and women) who joined for the sake of protection for themselves and their families and communities.

The fieldwork was conducted in Voinjama, the capital of Lofa County, bordering Guinea's Forest Region and the eastern parts of Sierra Leone. Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) was used as the data collecting method and 275 interviews were accomplished in accordance with a pre-made questionnaire. In addition to the questionnaire, the research team from Fafo conducted in-depth qualitative interviews and focus group sessions. RDS is a type of chain referral sampling method that was developed to identify elusive populations and to identify populations where no sampling frame exists, which is the case for ex-combatants in Liberia. RDS is based on a dual incentive structure, in which respondents are rewarded both for being interviewed and for recruiting new respondents. Four well-qualified staff members (one supervisor and three field interviewers) from Fafo's partner institutions in Liberia, the Liberian Institute of Statistic and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) assisted in the implementation of the fieldwork.

The results from the project will be published during the next months, first as a MICROCON working paper and later as an article to be submitted to a peer-review journal. The financial support from MICROCON and the ongoing conversation with other researchers through the same research network is highly appreciated.

3. New fieldwork

Nagorno-Karabakh, Western Sahara and Israel-Palestine
Researchers from Work Package 11, 'Conflict in the European Neighbourhood', are carrying out research in Nagorno-Karabakh, Western Sahara and Israel-Palestine. This research is investigating the role of civil society in resolving or fuelling various conflicts in the European Neighbourhood, and how the policies of the European Union affect that role. The field research will involve semi-structured interviews with civil society organisations from both sides of the conflicts, and also with European Union officials.

4. Publications

Policy Working Papers
Policy Working Papers 4 - 9: Ethno-Religious Conflict in Europe: Typologies of radicalisation in Europe's Muslim communities

These papers address societal tensions and violent conflict in contemporary Europe involving people from minority groups of Muslim culture. Six country case studies are presented: on Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Russia and the United Kingdom. They give a comprehensive account of Islam-related tensions and violence, from the jihadist terrorist acts seen in Europe in the aftermath of 9/11 in the US, through to the urban riots of the type seen in France in 2005. These events are analysed with a common typology together with detailed accounts of the social context in each country. The papers provide a unique source for those seeking to understand the nature of ethno-religious violence in contemporary Europe. They are intended to be read alongside PWP2: Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative by Olivier Roy.

PWP4: Ideological and Theological Foundations of Muslim Radicalism in France - Samir Amghar
PWP5: Political, Religious and Ethnic Radicalisation among Muslims in Belgium - Theodoros Koutroubas, Ward Vloeberghs and Zeynep Yanasmayan
PWP6: Muslims in the Netherlands: Tensions and Violent Conflict - Tinka Veldhuis and Edwin Bakker
PWP7: Radicalisation among Muslims in the UK - Rachel Briggs and Jonathan Birdwell
PWP8: Muslims in Spain and Islamic Religious Radicalism - Patricia Bezunartea, José Manuel López and Laura Tedesco
PWP9: Radicalisation of Russia's Muslim Community - Aleksei Malashenko and Akhmet Yarlykapov

Research Working Papers
RWP10: Do Conflicts Create Poverty Traps? Asset Losses and Recovery for Displaced Households in Colombia - Ana María Ibáñez and Andrés Moya

Internal conflicts entail large asset losses for certain segments in the civilian population. Asset losses may compromise the future welfare of households, thus leaving a legacy of structural poverty that is difficult to overcome. The purpose of this article is to analyze how asset losses occur during internal conflicts and the process of asset accumulation following the initial shock. To do this, we concentrate on a particularly vulnerable group of victims of war—the displaced population in Colombia. In achieving our objective, we adopt quantitative and qualitative approaches by: (i) providing a detailed description of losses stemming from forced displacement; (ii) analyzing qualitative evidence so as to understand the asset recovery processes for the displaced population; and (iii) estimating OLS, Instrumental Variable and quartile regressions in order to identify the determinants of asset losses stemming from forced displacement, and asset accumulation following the initial shock. The results indicate that recuperating asset losses or accumulating new assets is a rare event; only 25 percent of households are able to recover their original asset base, while asset ownership still seems insufficient for overcoming poverty. In addition, displaced households do not catch up even as settlement at destination sites consolidates. Therefore, unless a positive intervention is implemented, displaced households become locked in a low income trajectory, and are unlikely to leap forward to a high return asset level.

RWP11: Rebel Recruitment in a Coffee Exporting Economy - Eleonora Nillesen and Philip Verwimp

Recent literature in the political economy of civil war has pointed to the importance of (changes) in the economic environment for the understanding of conflict dynamics. Three channels, negative income shocks, the presence of exportable commodities and indiscriminate violence inflicted on one’s community are considered as drivers of conflict. This paper studies these channels with a new fifteenyear panel of community level data on Burundi whose coffee sector is intimately intertwined with the civil war. We find that indiscriminate violence inflicted at the start of the civil war (1993) continued to affect recruitment throughout the entire civil war. We also find that decreases in the producer price of coffee increases recruitment. Aiming to distinguish the resentment aspect from the opportunity aspect in low producer prices, we perform robustness tests with different specifications and with year-province rainfall shocks affecting overall agricultural income, not just coffee. Results indicate that it is the opportunity cost mechanism that drives increased recruitment.

RWP12: The Impact of Armed Civil Conflict on Household Welfare and Policy Responses - Patricia Justino

This paper offers a framework for analysing the effects of armed conflicts on households and the ways in which households in turn respond to and cope with the conflicts. It distinguishes between direct and indirect effects, and shows that the indirect effects are channelled through (i) markets, (ii) political institutions, and (iii) social networks. Drawing upon the recent empirical literature, the paper portrays the processes running along these various channels and offers policy suggestions to be adopted at both national and international levels.

RWP13: A Global View of Horizontal Inequalities: Inequalities Experienced by Muslims Worldwide - Frances Stewart

Both within and across countries, most attention has been devoted to measuring inequality among individuals (and globally countries). Within countries, increasing evidence shows that inequalities among groups (HIs) are important for wellbeing. However, the global component of HIs are generally neglected. The paper argues that HIs at a global level may also be important for world stability and wellbeing, in much the same way HIs are relevant at the national level. With this perspective, the paper reviews Muslim/ non-Muslim HIs within developed and developing countries, and between Muslim and non-Muslim countries, finding that Muslims are systematically disadvantaged across many dimensions. It argues that, despite much heterogeneity among the Muslim population, there is evidence of multiple global connections and of shared perceptions, such that inequalities faced by Muslims in one part of the world may become a source of grievance and potential mobilisation in other parts of the world. Consequently, socio-economic and political inequalities need to be addressed globally, within countries and between them, and politically as well as with respect to socio-economic and cultural status.

RWP 14: Labor Market Effects of Migration-Related Supply Shocks: Evidence from Internally Displaced Populations in Colombia - Valentina Calderón and Ana María Ibáñez

This paper studies the labor market effects of migration-related supply shocks. We exploit forced migration caused by the Colombian conflict as a natural experiment to examine the impact of exogenous labor supply shifts on labor outcomes. While migration flows are exogenously produced by conflict dynamics, location decisions might be positively correlated with demand shocks. An instrumental variables strategy allows us to correct for the possible attenuation bias generated by internally displaced populations locating in dynamic labor markets. Our results suggest that these immigration flows produce large negative impacts on the wages and employment opportunities of all workers, and are particularly large for low skill workers.

RWP15: Leaving Mogadishu: The War on Terror and Displacement Dynamics in the Somali Regions - Anna Lindley

This paper goes beyond commonly invoked macro-political explanations for conflict-related migration, offering a micro-analysis of the causes and processes of flight from Mogadishu in the last two years. It explores how particular interactions between people, their resources, and their structural contexts produce migration, and shape the process of migration. Based on qualitative research with people from Mogadishu seeking refuge in self-declared Somaliland, the paper illuminates some of the micro-level, human consequences of the ‘war on terror’ in the Somali regions.

RWP16: Identity and Islamic Radicalization in Western Europe - Mansoob Murshed and Sarah Pavan

This paper argues that both socio-economic disadvantage and political factors, such as the West’s foreign policy with regard to the Muslim world, along with historical grievances, play a part in the development of Islamic radicalized collective action in Western Europe. We emphasise the role of group identity based individual behaviour in organising collective action within radicalized Muslim groups. Inasmuch as culture plays any role at all in radicalization, it is because individuals feel an imperative to act on the basis of their Muslim identity, something to which different individuals will attach varying degrees of salience, depending on how they place their Muslim identity based actions in the scheme of their multiple identities. We also emphasize the role of the opportunistic politician, from the majority European community, in fomenting hatred for Muslims, which also produces a backlash from radicalized political Islam. We present comparative evidence on socio-economic, political and cultural disadvantage faced by Muslim minorities in five West European countries: Germany, the UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands.

5. Training

Third Call for Applications for the INCO Training Fund
The latest call for the MICROCON INCO Training Fund is now open. INCO Training Fund is intended to support and encourage the training and mobility of researchers from developing countries to participate actively in research activities being undertaken by MICROCON’s partners. It will allow researchers to share knowledge and experience, both to build their own expertise in the micro level analysis of violent conflict, and to build linkages with MICROCON. The deadline for applications is 30th September 2009.

Download the full Call for Applications

6. Other news:

Nathalie Tocci co-edits book on Cyprus conflict

Timothy Raeymaekers publishes article on economic opportunities and governance

Philip Verwimp, Patricia Justino and Tilman Brück co-edit Special Issue of Journal of Peace Research

Anne Hatløy and Ingunn Bjørkhaug publish paper in Global Public Health

MICROCON scholars write articles for a symposium on the Economics of Conflict